M&A Outlook 2026: Rising Deal Value, Tech & Media on Fire, but Mid-Market & Rules Pose Hurdles

In 2025, the M&A landscape underwent a significant revival. Global M&A deal value reached between $4.39 and $4.5 trillion, rising roughly 45–50% versus 2024, powered in part by a surge in megadeals. In the U.S., announced deals topped $2.2 trillion, though total volume (number of deals) declined similarly. [2][3][6] Such divergence—between strong value growth and soft volume performance—reflects how large transactions, often driven by transformative or technology-driven motives, are doing the heavy lifting.

EY-Parthenon’s Deal Barometer forecasts modest growth in U.S. M&A volumes over $100 million: about +9% in 2025 versus 2024, then +3% in 2026. Corporate deal volumes are expected +10% in 2025 and +3% in 2026; PE-led deals +8%, then +5% respectively. But value growth is steeper—year-to-date in 2025, U.S. deal value is up ~36% over 2024, on pace to exceed $2 trillion for all U.S. M&A of size. [1] These figures suggest dealmakers are eager to leverage favorable financial conditions—lower spreads, improving borrowing costs, strong liquidity—but remain selective.

Sectors with standout momentum include critical technology, media & telecom (TMT), life sciences, industrials, and energy/renewables. Technology and AI feature front and center across reports: strategic acquirers are purchasing AI capabilities; media firms are consolidating legacy assets and bolstering adtech and content IP portfolios; industrials are being reshaped by electrification, automation, and digital infrastructure investment; healthcare continues consolidating around biopharma, digital health, and platforms. [4][5][2] Media and telecom also see mega transactions reshaping the space—Netflix-WBD, EA’s take-private, telecom fiber and tower carve‐outs. [4][5]

On the upside, several tailwinds are supporting the outlook into 2026: expectations of further interest rate cuts and easing financing costs; a narrowing of valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers; abundant private equity dry powder seeking deployment; and CEO/boardroom confidence in pursuing transformative transactions. [1][4] But material risks persist. Policy volatility (tariffs, trade, regulatory enforcement) could chill activity, especially on cross-border or heavily regulated deals; inflation, labor constraints, or weaker consumer demand could undercut earnings and suppress deal execution; and mid-market and smaller deals may remain suppressed unless financing remains favorable and sellers price with discipline.

Strategic implications for investment banks and corporates:

• Prepare for more large or transformational deals: build expertise in AI, digital infrastructure, IP & content; enable flexible deal structures and execution certainty to win when competition is high.
• Mid-market opportunities may underperform unless firms and PE sellers improve storytelling, governance, financials, and clarity of differentiation — potential sweet spots in carve-outs, spinoffs, roll-ups.
• Regulatory strategy needs to be proactive: anticipate antitrust, FCC or sector regulation shifts, and build in deal flexibility (MAC clauses, conditional approvals).
• Debt/financing strategies matter more: secures access to alternative capital (private credit, structured financings), monitor credit spreads and rate expectations carefully.